[SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Summary] Ternary cathode material's slight price increase is constrained, while stockpiling in the NEV market adds momentum

Lithium Ore:

At the beginning of this week, lithium ore prices were basically stable WoW, mainly due to the current sideways movement in lithium carbonate prices.On the supply side, overseas mines continued to refuse to budge on prices. Suppliers took the opportunity to raise prices when lithium carbonate prices increased earlier, pushing up overall market quotations; On the demand side, the current lithium chemical prices provided hedging space for traders and lithium chemical plants, raising their psychological acceptance price, leading to a slight rebound in the lower end of the market. Amid the rangebound fluctuation of lithium chemicals and lithium ore prices, the activity in the lithium ore market was better than before, but the wait-and-see sentiment among buyers intensified, making it difficult for lithium ore prices to decline in the short term.

Lithium Carbonate:

At the beginning of this week, spot lithium carbonate prices continued to fluctuate upward.Affected by the improved demand expectations for July and other market rumors, spot prices stopped falling and stabilized, showing a slight rebound. Meanwhile, strong support from some rigid demand pushed the price center higher. However, from the supply side, the output of lithium carbonate remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation in the market continued, with inventory pressure still present. Going forward, close attention needs to be paid to the actual recovery of demand in July.

Lithium Hydroxide:

At the beginning of this week, the decline in lithium hydroxide prices slowed down WoW.In terms of production, most enterprises produced based on sales, following normal production schedules; In terms of market sentiment, downstream players continued to drive down prices; however, on the upstream side, the recent recovery in lithium carbonate and lithium ore prices strengthened cost support, and there was a strong reluctance to budge on prices during transactions, slowing down the pace of the lithium hydroxide price decline. It is expected that the downside room for lithium hydroxide prices will be relatively limited in the short term.

Refined Cobalt:

On Monday, refined cobalt prices dropped slightly.On the supply side, cobalt smelters maintained long-term contract supplies, with few spot orders and unchanged ex-factory prices. Domestic futures prices fell, and traders followed suit. On the demand side, as the social inventory of refined cobalt remained high and downstream demand did not show significant improvement, most downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, resulting in sluggish transactions. It is expected that refined cobalt prices will continue to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Intermediate Products:

On Monday, the spot prices of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise, with some companies reporting transactions around 12.1-12.2.On the supply side, most companies maintained a bullish outlook and suspended quotations, while a few companies further raised their quotes. On the demand side, smelters faced losses due to production costs and weak downstream demand. Under the uncertain future, most companies focused on consuming their own inventories, and some smelters with low inventories inquired about low-priced goods. Overall, influenced by the DRC's policy extension, China's cobalt intermediate products will face raw material shortages, providing upward momentum for prices. However, the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be closely monitored.

Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):

On Monday, cobalt sulphate prices rose slightly, with actual transactions reported around 4.9-5.1, and a few large factories had small transactions around 5.2.On the supply side, companies maintained a bullish sentiment, and smelters and traders further raised their new product quotes. On the demand side, downstream ternary orders did not show significant improvement, and the market was mainly in a wait-and-see mode, focusing on digesting previous inventories. Ternary cobalt companies, currently enjoying better prices, made some purchases in the market; however, LCO purchases were paused due to poor economics. Overall, under the current uncertain situation, there was still a price discrepancy between buyers and sellers, with the upstream insisting on holding prices and the downstream showing weak purchase willingness. Actual transactions were still limited, and it is expected that cobalt sulphate prices may continue to fluctuate upward this week.

Current cobalt chloride prices were 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with a sluggish market and only a few transactions. On the supply side, smelters were still cautious, with few transactions; on the demand side, downstream enterprises had sufficient inventory levels, actively inquiring about prices, but remaining cautious. In terms of prices, although smelters quoted high, the actual transaction price was still around 6.1, with only a few transactions at 6.2. It is expected that cobalt chloride prices will remain stable within the 6.1-6.2 range in the short term.

Cobalt Salts (Co3O4):

Current Co3O4 prices were 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt, with both upstream and downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and few actual transactions, mostly long-term contracts.On the supply side, Co3O4 producers chose to observe the overall market sentiment and demand, with only a small amount of shipments; on the demand side, LCO cathode plants had relatively low inventories, but the overall market was heavily influenced by sentiment, leading to a wait-and-see approach. In terms of prices, Co3O4 producers expected to sell at 210,000-220,000 yuan/mt, but high-priced Co3O4 saw few actual transactions. In the long run, Co3O4 prices are still affected by cobalt inventory, and whether the current industry inventory can support until December is key to the price trend.

Nickel Sulphate:

On July 7, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 27,202/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 27,200-27,620 yuan/mt, and the average price was basically flat WoW.Cost side, as the US global tariff deadline approached, the risk aversion sentiment caused by tariff uncertainty hindered the rebound trend of nickel prices, and LME nickel prices pulled back. Overall, the immediate cost of nickel salts may decrease; on the supply side, some salt smelters intended to raise prices due to the increase in raw material costs, but weak buyer demand led to few transactions, with overall inventory and production schedules at low levels; on the demand side, precursor manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm remained weak, and after completing stockpiling at the end of last month, they mainly adopted a wait-and-see approach. Looking ahead, with the decline in production costs and weak downstream demand, although nickel salt smelters continue to hold prices, nickel salt prices may still stabilize at a low level.

Ternary Cathode Precursor:

On Monday, ternary cathode precursor prices increased.In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while cobalt sulphate prices rose, driving up the absolute price of precursors. The discount coefficient for spot orders showed no significant adjustment. The overall demand in the ternary market remained mediocre, lacking solid support for price increases. Downstream battery cell manufacturers still held the power over the discount coefficient, showing a weak response to the rise in cobalt sulphate prices, and the overall discount strategy remained stable, with long-term contract discounts expected to remain unchanged in the short term. In terms of demand, the domestic NEV market saw a slight increase in demand for 6-series products, and the overseas market also saw a slight increase in demand for 8-series products, but overall orders were concentrated among top-tier enterprises. The consumer market remained sluggish. On the supply side, with the entry into the restocking phase in July, overall production schedules were expected to recover.

Ternary Cathode Material:

On Monday, 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode material prices increased.In terms of raw materials, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices were basically flat, while cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, and the decline in lithium hydroxide slowed. Due to weak market demand and the dominant position of battery cell manufacturers in pricing negotiations, there was limited room for a substantial increase in ternary cathode material prices. Downstream battery cell manufacturers showed a lukewarm response to the rise in cobalt sulphate prices, and the discount coefficient was expected to remain stable. In terms of demand, some new car models in the NEV market drove moderate stockpiling, with orders mainly concentrated among top-tier battery cell manufacturers. Overseas battery cell manufacturers experienced some order shifts, affecting orders for cathode materials. The consumer market was in the traditional off-season, with generally mediocre recent orders. On the supply side, with the entry into the restocking phase in July, the overall production of ternary cathode materials was expected to recover slightly.

LFP:

This week, LFP prices continued to rise, increasing by about 210 yuan/mt, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of about 950 yuan/mt.Market-wise, overall production at material plants was stable this week, with top-tier enterprises maintaining a steady production rhythm with a slight increase. Downstream demand was expected to see some growth this month. However, the market demand began to diverge, with NEV orders expected to decrease this month, while ESS demand performed well, driving overall demand growth. Recently, a battery cell manufacturer started a tender, which progressed relatively smoothly. Based on the information available, the price war in the second half of the year is expected to intensify. Overall, the recent LFP market mainly revolved around tenders, with mediocre demand and relatively stable market conditions.

Iron Phosphate:

This week, the iron phosphate market remained stable, with no significant fluctuations despite entering H2.Some companies that adjusted prices in June temporarily halted the downward trend in July. The reason was that new entrants often used low-price strategies to capture the market, and even if established companies lowered prices, their discounts could not match those of new entrants, and continuous low prices could lead to greater losses. Companies with previously low sales, while still actively seeking orders, adhered to price bottom lines and instead focused on enhancing product competitiveness to secure market share. The current market was characterized by a significant game: new companies using price as a spear to attack the market, and old companies using quality as a shield to defend. Both sides sought a dynamic balance in the price tug-of-war, and the iron phosphate market was expected to continue this stable yet defensive trend in the short term.

LCO:

Recently, LCO prices increased significantly due to changes in raw material costs: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, and Co3O4 prices, influenced by DRC policies, showed a strong inclination to increase.On the supply side, Co3O4 companies offered high prices, and LCO cathode plants showed low purchase willingness for high-priced Co3O4; on the demand side, terminal demand was about to enter the off-season, reducing the demand for LCO. Overall, LCO prices were expected to rise significantly along with the increase in Co3O4 and lithium carbonate prices.

Anode:

This week, artificial graphite anode material prices stopped falling and stabilized.On the demand side, the slowdown in automaker production led to weak growth in power battery cell demand, but the slight recovery in small storage market demand partially offset the gap in the NEV market. This change was transmitted upstream, keeping the overall demand for anode materials relatively stable. On the supply side, the ample supply continued; on the cost side, with anode and traditional industries restocking, the cost of anode raw materials stopped falling and rebounded, providing support for artificial graphite prices. With multiple factors at play, artificial graphite anode material prices entered a stalemate this week. Looking ahead, although the overcapacity situation is unlikely to change in the short term, related raw material prices are expected to stabilize, supporting anode material prices to gradually enter a stable operating phase.
This week, supported by stable supply-demand and cost conditions, natural graphite anode material prices remained stable. Looking ahead, with accelerated innovation in artificial graphite anode technology and gradual capacity expansion of vapor deposition silicon-carbon producers, downstream customers' dual demands for cost reduction and performance upgrades are gradually shifting procurement preferences toward alternative materials. This trend directly squeezes the market demand space for natural graphite anode. Considering supply-demand dynamics and technological iteration, natural graphite anode material prices are expected to remain under pressure.

Separator:

Separator prices remained generally stable this week. Specifically: mainstream quotations for wet-process separators were 1.35 yuan/m² for 5μm, 0.76 yuan/m² for 7μm, and 0.74 yuan/m² for 9μm. Dry-process separator mainstream quotations were 0.45 yuan/m² for 12μm and 0.44 yuan/m² for 16μm. Supply side, constrained by prolonged capacity release cycles, accumulated inventory capacity has not been fully digested, maintaining a supply surplus. Demand side showed structural divergence: NEV market demand fell short of expectations, while ESS sector demand exceeded prior market forecasts, resulting in a slight MoM increase in overall demand. Given current supply-demand balance, separator prices are expected to remain stable with limited fluctuations in the short term.

Electrolyte

: Electrolyte prices held steady this week. Cost side, core raw materials like LiPF6, solvents, and additives remained stable, maintaining relatively steady cost conditions. Demand side, the NEV market is still digesting inventory, leading to reduced production schedules and a slight MoM decline in power battery demand. The ESS market performed strongly with sustained overseas demand growth. Overall demand growth was relatively small. Supply side, electrolyte producers continued their "produce based on sales" model. Structural overcapacity kept market competition intense. Multiple factors suggest electrolyte prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound.

Sodium-ion battery

: The sodium-ion battery market showed positive momentum this week. NFPP maintained its dominance in cathode materials with technological and cost advantages, enjoying robust order demand and continued price declines. In contrast, layered oxide shipments dropped significantly YoY. Despite occasional low-price sales, cost bottlenecks prevented further price declines, keeping sodium-ion battery cell prices relatively stable. As industry scale expands, defective product issues are becoming prominent. Establishing efficient, environmentally friendly recycling systems for defective sodium-ion batteries may become key to sustainable development, drawing deep industry attention.

Recycling

: Following last week's DRC import/export restrictions, cobalt sulphate prices continued rising but with limited upside due to weak short-term demand support. Nickel sulphate prices were basically stable, while lithium carbonate prices rebounded slightly with oscillating trends. Ternary and LCO black mass coefficients remained flat. Currently, LFP pole piece black mass lithium points were 2,150-2,300 yuan/mtu, and LFP battery black mass lithium points were 1,950-2,100 yuan/mtu. For ternary black mass: ternary pole piece black mass nickel-cobalt coefficients were 72-74%, lithium coefficients 66-70%; ternary battery black mass nickel-cobalt coefficients were 70-72%, prices basically flat WoW. Ternary wet-process demand side, most plants maintained stable procurement volumes this month, consuming only basic inventory. Pessimism about future lithium chemical prices kept black mass purchases cautious, maintaining sluggish market activity. LFP wet-process demand side, most plants operated at half capacity, doing only partial toll processing without external purchases. Supply side, grinding mills and traders adjusted selling prices downward with falling salt prices, keeping black mass prices declining alongside salts. Market activity remained sluggish. Cost side, except for leading integrated wet-process plants, most operators' profits stayed below breakeven, especially LFP wet-process plants hit hard by lithium price drops. Grinding mills fared slightly better but some small-medium plants also faced sustained losses.

Downstream and end-user

: DC-side battery cabin prices dipped slightly this week. Average prices were 0.428 yuan/Wh for 5MWh DC-side battery cabins and 0.437 yuan/Wh for 3.44/3.77MWh units. Stimulated by provincial subsidy policies, ESS integrators saw increased shipments in some regions, but end-users remained cautious due to incomplete power mechanism details. Integrators slightly lowered prices to compete for existing orders. SMM expects DC-side battery cabin prices may continue declining modestly in the short term.

On June 30, the winning bid for 2 million kW "Alashan-Ulanqab" regional mutual aid new energy project ESS equipment procurement was announced. The project, to be built in Alxa High-Tech Industrial Development Zone, Inner Mongolia, has total capacity of 300MW/600MWh. The bid winner's offer was 276 million yuan, translating to 0.46 yuan/Wh.

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News   

: [Mercedes Q2 sales at 547,000 units, down 9% YoY] Mercedes sold 547,100 units in Q2, down 9% YoY. The GLC remained Mercedes' global best-seller in H1 2025, with Q2 sales up 9%. Global plug-in hybrid sales rose 34% in Q2. In Europe, xEV share reached 40%, with global share at 21% in Q2. (Cailian Press)
[Spain lithium battery recycling plant fire not extinguished after three days] A fire broke out at a lithium battery recycling plant near Madrid, Spain on the 4th and remained uncontained as of the 6th. Two people were reportedly injured. According to Deutsche Presse-Agentur, the plant is located in an industrial zone approximately 50 kilometers northeast of Madrid, with firefighters still battling the blaze on the 6th. Multiple explosions triggered the inferno, with the cause remaining unclear. (Finance News)
[Four ministries: Aiming for over 100,000 large-power charging facilities nationwide by end of 2027] The General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and three other ministries issued the "Notice on Promoting Scientific Planning and Construction of Large-Power Charging Facilities". The document proposes to align with local economic development levels, NEV promotion efforts, and power resource distribution, prioritizing "charge-and-go" scenarios while implementing tailored, forward-looking, and scientifically reasonable development layouts for large-power charging infrastructure. Provincial departments in charge of charging infrastructure development shall collaborate with relevant authorities to establish development goals and construction tasks for large-power charging facilities within charging network planning, formulate specialized plans for such facilities as needed, prioritize construction plans for highway service areas jointly with transportation authorities, and take the lead in upgrading facilities with utilization rates exceeding 40% during major holidays. Planning shall adhere to market principles with sound forecasting and verification, while coordinating with territorial spatial planning, power distribution grid planning, and transportation planning to achieve synergistic development between large-power charging networks and existing charging infrastructure. By the end of 2027, China aims to have over 100,000 large-power charging facilities nationwide, with service quality and technological applications achieving iterative upgrades. (Finance News)

SMM New Energy Research Team

Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

Ziya Lin 86-2151666902

Disheng Feng 021-51666714

Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875

Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

Zihan Wang 021-51666914

Jie Wang 021-51595902Z79/>He Zhang 021-20707850Z80/>Haohan Zhang 021-51666752

Bolun Chen 021-51666836

Mengqi Xu 021-20707868